Where Do We Go From Here?: Adam Thielen

Hello Skoloholics! We’re continuing in our off-season series called “Where do we go from here?” where we explore decisions that are looming on the Vikings’ horizon, and discuss the options that the team will have.

Today, we look at a long-time favorite of many Viking fans, wide receiver Adam Thielen. You all know the story by now about how Thielen attended college at Mankato State, then attended an open Vikings tryout, squeaked onto the roster, played mostly special teams (or the practice squad) until he got his break, and then he exploded onto the scene. Since then, Thielen was among the league’s best for years, and was one-half of the pair that was among the league’s best WR duos for many years, paired first with Stefon Diggs and then again with Justin Jefferson.

Aging or Mis-Used?

Thielen still possessed a great deal of skill through the 2021 season, but in 2022, he appeared to have gotten slower and lost a step. He certainly didn’t look the same in 2022, and he didn’t perform as well, as nearly all of his stats are way down, stats courtesy of ESPN. Is that a deterioration of his skill set, or was he just not used properly by the new offensive coaching staff? From a fan’s eye, we automatically assume that he’s just getting older and slower, but you hear other players say that Thielen is as fast or faster than he’s ever been. I wouldn’t expect the drop-off to be so sudden, if it was physical, so maybe there’s more to it? Thielen’s wife sounds off a bit on it:

Contract: The Real Issue

The real issue with Adam Thielen, and the primary reason why he will likely NOT be a Viking next year is his contract, contract info courtesy of Spotrac. This was another mistake contract that Rick Spielman saddled this team with prior to his long-overdue departure in 2021. As you can see, the contract is structured in a way that is horrible for the team. They back-loaded the heaviest cap hits into the last years, and the multiple restructures have pushed a bunch of dead cap into the later years as well. This leaves the Vikings with few options, and none of them are good.

Options

Extension

An extension is an option. Odds of this happening are about the same as the odds you could stick a wet noodle up a wildcat’s ass. It isn’t happening, so let’s not even dig too deeply here. Thielen will be 33 this year, and his current contract runs through 2024, so an extension would put him under contract until the age of 35 or more, plus his current contract is far too high to even work with. You can’t pay an aging receiver anywhere near $20 million a year. Sorry, those who love Thielen, but an extension is NOT HAPPENING.

Release or Trade

Trade

See the contract argument under “Extension”, and you can use those same arguments as evidence that the Vikings are unlikely to find a trade partner for Thielen. It could conceivably happen if some head coach thinks that 2017 Thielen is still inside that body just waiting for the right system, but I think this is unlikely. The most reasonable scenario is that Thielen is released, in my opinion. If you feel a trade is possible, please elaborate in the comments.

Release

In my opinion, the most likely scenario is that Adam Thielen is released. It’ll be a sad day for many fans, as Thielen has been a solid player, team mate, and he and his family are just good people. I have a profound respect for Thielen, his foundation, and for all he does in the community. He makes the world a better place for others, and I have the utmost respect for him.

If/when Thielen is released, the Vikings have a couple options. They can release him prior to June 1, which would trigger the $13.5 million dead cap hit and it would all be applied to the 2023 cap. If they released him with a post June 1 designation, then only $6.5 million of the $13.5 million dead cap would be applied to the Vikings 2023 salary cap, and the other $7 million dead cap would be applied to the team’s 2024 salary cap. A pre June 1 release saves the Vikes around $6.5 million in cap space for 2023, while a post June 1 release would provide $13.5 million in cap savings for 2023. The option they choose will come down to whether they can absorb the hit in 2023, which would be optimal, or whether they need to push some into 2024.

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Again, Thielen has been rock solid for the Vikings and it has been a treat to cheer for him. It appears that his time as a Viking will come to an end, but all the best to Thielen and his family as they move on to the next chapter in their life. Hopefully he will come back to retire as a Viking one day. I’m confident that he will. Enjoy the video below. SKOL!!!!!!