Minnesota Vikings Discussion – SkolAsylum: 18 JAN 2024

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skolifer
skolifer
18 January 2024 3:20 pm

Warning. This is going to be a long comment that’s probably better for an article but nobody reads those around here and I stopped doing Fanposts on DN a couple years ago. If you like data/numbers, you may find this worthwhile, and I’m hoping to get some follow up questions from folks to generate some discussion, once I lay out the framework of my analysis. If you don’t like numbers and/or TLDR is too much for you, don’t read it.

The motive behind this analysis is an increasing level of boredom/frustration on the endless discussion about, “is QB wins a legitimate stat?”. The obvious answer all along, for me at least, has always been “yes and no”. But the problem is that, just like in politics and other areas of life, we drifted to the extreme as a society where we want things to be black and white, not gray. Unfortunately, the reality is that in most things, “somewhere in the middle” lies the best truth. Hence, I decided to do an analysis to see not whether QB wins is a stat, because it is and it isn’t, but to what extent do QBs “influence wins”.

Like any analysis, you have to pick a starting point to narrow down an unlimited set of variables. So, I started with building a ‘regular season’ data set over the past 5 seasons, from 2019 – 2023. I limited my analysis, with a few exceptions I’ll explain later, to the “Top 10 teams based on regular season record” for each of these 5 seasons. From there, I built a spreadsheet to include the following stats by team/season:

  • QB Rating – In Top 10 (yes or no…same for rest of Top 10 questions below))
  • QB Rating – Rank
  • QBR Rating – In Top 10?
  • QBR Rating – Rank
  • Total Offense Yards Gained – In Top 10?
  • Total Offense Yards Gained – Rank
  • Total Offense Points Scored – In Top 10?
  • Total Offense Points Scored – Rank
  • Passing Yards – Rank
  • Rushing Yards – Rank
  • Total Defense Yards – In Top 10?
  • Total Defense Rank
  • Total Defense Points Allowed – In Top 10?
  • Total Defense Points Allowed – Rank
  • Total Defense Passing Yards Allowed – Rank
  • Total Defense Rushing Yards Allowed – Rank

These stats gave me the basis for my analysis. To be clear, football is a team sport with a lot of other important variables my data set doesn’t capture like, time of possession, turnover margin, special teams play, etc. But I spent several hours over the past couple of days manually inputting this data and I do have a business to run. I also don’t use “pay for” sites because there’s a lot of free resources (my favorite is PFR). The down side is that it’s hard to import and/or copy/paste data into spreadsheet from these sites, so you end up doing a lot of data entry. Bottom line, this isn’t a “perfect data set” (there is no such thing) and it’s also important to note I’m using an Excel spreadsheet to determine some basic correlations between data. I’m not running regression analysis or using statistical software that would/could provide a higher level of integrity to this analysis. That said, I did find some interesting “basic correlations” and trends that give a little more insight into my starting question (i.e. are QB wins a stat), as well as some other interesting outcomes.

Before I get into “answering” my initial question, here are some high level regular season observations (in no particular order). Some may seem obvious but I’ll explain why they’re notable, to me at least:

  • QBR is a more important indicator than QB Rating when correlating “QB Stats” to team success. Over the past 5 years, 70% of the teams that finished the regular season (RS) with a Top 10 record had a QB that finished in the Top 10 of QBR with an average ranking of 8.4. This compares to 60% of teams with a Top 10 QB Rating. They both obviously correlate but if you’re going to choose between these two stats, QBR is better.
  • Points is more important than yards (duh). Offensively, 76% of these teams finished Top 10 in points scored compared to 68% that finished Top 10 in yards. Defensively 60% of teams finished Top 10 in points allowed compared to 48% in yards allowed. Most of us probably already “knew” this based on the simple fact that wins/losses are based on points, not yards. But this is a good example of how the media can distort our view on things. For the last half of this season, one of the big media narratives was about how “the Browns have the best defense in the NFL”. This ended up being true based on yards. But they finished the season as the 14th best defense in terms of points allowed. Probably a big reason they’re no longer playing. The morale of the story? Focus more on points than yards.
  • A good offense beats a good defense when it comes to predicting RS success. The above numbers support this point to an extent but the data also reveals that the average “points scored” rank by Top 10 teams was 7.2 during this period whereas the average “points allowed” rank was 10.5. Furthermore, only 3 teams during this span finished in the Top 10 for RS record with a bottom-half ranking in points scored compared to 11 teams that finished in the bottom-half in points allowed. But…
  • If you don’t have a top-half offense in points scored, you better have a Top 3 defense in points allowed. There was only 1 team out of 50 teams (i.e. 5 seasons of Top 10 RS teams) in the data set that finished in the Top 10 (at the very bottom for that season) with a bottom-half offense and defense in terms of points.
  • You don’t need both “elite” offense and defense to win but being at least top-half in the league in both matters…a lot. Only 9 of the 50 teams in this sample finished with both a Top 5 offense and defense, while 24 finished with both in the Top 10 and 38 finished with both in the top-half…nearly 80% of those teams that finished with a Top 10 record.
  • Having a good balance between passing and rushing success helps both offenses and defenses, but it’s more important on offense. In general, the variance between passing and rushing rankings is higher on defense than offense among these teams BUT, if you have a high variance on defense, being able to stop the run is much more important. Of the 12 teams that had a bottom-half defense, 10 of the 12 had better success against the run than the pass. In fact, the average difference in ranking between pass and run defense was +9 in favor of the rush (e.g. if they finished with a bottom half defense and their pass defense was ranked 23rd, on average, their run defense was 14th). The only major exception to this “rule” was the 2022 Chargers who finished with the 4th best pass defense and 21st “best” run defense. They probably got away with this because they also had the 3rd best pass offense that year which put pressure on other teams to throw the ball…playing into the Chargers strength on defense.

What about playoffs? For this question, I did an admittedly simple analysis and just looked at the 4 teams that made a championship game for the past 4 years (I will update my spreadsheet with 2023 data in a couple weeks), and then I also further considered the two teams that made the Super Bowl and the team that ultimately won. Here’s a few tidbits I found:

  • 11 of the 16 QBs that played in championship games between 2019 – 2022 were Top 10 in QBR during the regular season, which is 69%…consistent with the 70% Top 10 QBR that helped lead to Top 10 RS finishes (the playoff data set includes 3 QBs/teams that didn’t finish in Top 10 RS records: 2019 Titans/Tannehill, 2021 49ers/Garapolo and 2021 Bengals/Burrow…Tannehill is the only one of these QBs to finish the RS with Top 10 QBR). That said, this increases to 75% for QBs that played in the Super Bowl (i.e. won their championship game) and 100% for Super Bowl winning QBs.
  • “Defense wins championships” may be dying. Of the 16 teams that participated in a championship games, their offensive rank averaged 5.8 versus an average defensive rank of 10.2. For those that went on to play or win in the Super Bowl (the averages for playing and winning were pretty much the same), this disparity increased to 4.3 and 11.3 for offensive and defensive ranking, respectively. That said…
  • Even with a top tier offense, if you want to make it to the championship game, you better have a top-half defense. 6 of the 8 teams that played in a championship game had a defense ranked in the top-half. The only exceptions were the 2021 Bengals and the 2019 Chiefs, who also won the Super Bowl (BTW…it helps having Patrick Mahomes who is one of only two QBs to be Top 10 in QBR each of the past 5 seasons, the other being Josh Allen).

So, without further adieu, let’s get back to my original question: is QB wins a stat? The answer is still yes and no but, if you’ve been paying attention, I think we have more clarity as to that answer…it’s more yes than no. The data suggests a strong correlation between QBR (i.e. QB stats) and both RS and playoff performance (i.e. wins). If 70% of the top teams in both the RS and playoffs have a QB with a Top 10 QBR and, per above, offense matters more than defense these days, then the QB has a much higher influence on team success than any other factor. In general, QBs deserve more of the credit when things go right and also deserves more of the blame when things go wrong.

That said, that doesn’t mean variables outside his control aren’t also important and I actually think there are two good Kirk Cousins related examples that illustrate this point:

When the Vikings made the playoffs in 2019, Kirk finished 13th in QBR and the Vikings passing game finished 23rd. They had success primarily due to their 6th ranked rushing offense and 5th ranked defense. This is an example where, focusing just on the RS results, Kirk didn’t contribute as much to the team’s success as other parts of the team. I’m not saying he sucked…we just didn’t get the production from that position that you would expect from a top paid QB (according to OTC, Kirk had the 3rd highest cap hit in the league in 2019).

Conversely, when the Vikings made the playoffs in 2022, Kirk finished 4 in QBR (his best season ever) and the passing game was ranked 5th. Unfortunately, their 27th ranked rushing offense and 28th ranked defense doomed the Vikings in the playoffs. That said, there’s no way the Vikings win so many one-score games or make the playoffs if not for an outstanding season by Cousins. He was still the 3rd highest paid QB in terms of salary cap hit that season but, in this case, he earned it.

Anyway, I don’t expect this to end the debate. And frankly, I found some of the other “insights” I found to be more interesting than trying to “prove” or “disprove” whether or not QB wins is a thing. The bottom line is that both side of this debate have merit but if you’re arguing from the extreme on either side, you’re wrong. The truth is in the middle albeit nearer to QB wins is a stat than not. Perhaps the better question to ask would be, “is wins a ‘QB only’ stat?” in which case the clear answer is no. But as far as the more discussed alternative, “is ‘QB wins’ a stat?” the answer will always be, “yes, but…”.

NoDakRube
Reply to  skolifer
18 January 2024 3:25 pm

Skoli, I am a numbers guy but I don’t have time to read the whole thing and give it adequate thought and attention right now, I have read the 1st couple of paragraphs and I am intrigued.

I will give a full reading tomorrow and give you a decent response and feedback.

Thanks for your analytical work.

skolifer
skolifer
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 3:28 pm

I need to wrap up my day and needed to post this before I left. It took me longer to type up than I anticipated (i.e. thought I’d get it out earlier), but I didn’t want to lose my work and wasn’t sure how it would copy/paste if I saved it in a Word file overnight.

I may repost it on tomorrow’s thread or happy to have an admin do it when they setup tomorrows thread, if they’re so included (no pressure).

skolifer
skolifer
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 5:29 pm

Makes sense. You wouldn’t comprehend it anyway.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  skolifer
18 January 2024 4:38 pm

This is an outstanding analysis. And i applaud you taking a difficult subject that is tossed around with a lot of “subjective” thoughts and using analysis to bring a more substantive view.
I need to read a few more times to more fully comprehend.
At first blush, a thought or question about QBR? From my limited reading, there seems to be a fair amount of subjectivity to the development of this number. This number appears to have a fair amount of weight in the analysis. Just wonder if you have feelings on this?
Again, a great lopk at this.

skolifer
skolifer
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 5:28 pm

All “manufactured stats” (e.g. QBR, QB rating, DVOA, etc) rely on some level of subjectivity when weighting the various factors in their algorithms. They are also limited by the number of variables you can reasonably consider that affect the stat. For instance, Kirk’s 2019 QBR could have been better if we had a better o-line, scheme, etc but QBR doesn’t consider that. However, I still believe a composite stat like QBR is better than just looking at completion %, passing yards, TD/INT ratio, etc because it captures most/all of those factors into a single “stat”. And the fact there is a 70% correlation between Too 10 QBR and Top 10 team results suggests it’s more right than wrong and, minimally better than QB rating that doesn’t correlate as highly.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  skolifer
18 January 2024 5:41 pm

Thanks. After a second read get you point about the 70% correlation.
And agree about composite stats versus individual one.
Will read again as I think this is a very interesting subject and appreciate your effort here ( just like thoughtful work).
Posted my own completely subjective and personal thoughts on W/L stat as refers to baseball pitchers ( with inference to QB.s).a couple of days ago.

skolifer
skolifer
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 5:49 pm

I saw your baseball analogy post and thought it was interesting. It’s part of what “inspired” my effort along with the ad naseum “Kirk Tuesday” debates.

VikingPhilip
Reply to  skolifer
18 January 2024 4:49 pm

I have to admit I just skimmed the article, but thanks for doing all the work. Interesting stuff. However, I don’t expect it to stop anybody from declaring their extreme viewpoint. We generally read stuff with our own bias and especially when our bias is to the extreme.

KFEY93
Reply to  skolifer
18 January 2024 4:58 pm

Solid post, read the whole thing. I found it intriguing that the year (he who shall not be named on any day but tuesday) posted his mid 13th ranked QBR ( id argue thats closer to his average than his one time top 3 in 2022) had a 23rd ranked passing attack but thats the best this team has looked since 2017 and its the last time we won a play off game.

Also this helps to point that you need both sides of the ball to have their shit together as well as a QB that can be great CONSISTANTLY as much as possible, not a one month stretch or one time season. While being on the cheap in order to make the bowl. Team sport that is heavily impacted by one position.

Surly Viking
Admin
Reply to  skolifer
18 January 2024 9:11 pm

skolifer
skolifer
Reply to  Surly Viking
18 January 2024 9:51 pm

lol…rec.

Surly Viking
Admin
Reply to  skolifer
18 January 2024 9:19 pm

ty for this. Made me think, and read a long post this late at night.

I consider wins a QB stat, but as you say, sometimes they are not.

I feel that the longer a persons QB career, the more accurate that stat will be. There will be teams that are bad and good in that QBs time playing, and if he truly sucks he will start as often as Manion or Hall and have a very short career. I feel 3 years and longer starts to really show if a QB can lift the team when it is needed.

skolifer
skolifer
Reply to  Surly Viking
18 January 2024 10:20 pm

I agree there’s an intangible “lift stat” for QBs…some have it, some don’t. The challenge is in how you measure it. Tom Brady has IT (obviously) and Mahomes does too. You can probably throw Josh Allen into that mix, to an extent, but beyond that, I’m not sure. I do know Kirk isn’t in that mix yet, but he could be… he’s running out of time (age-wise).

JacksonVike
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 2:40 pm

The thread itself was a summary today.

freezeyface
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 2:44 pm

once again, i dominate the summary. always a good day when that happens

HUNViking
Reply to  freezeyface
18 January 2024 4:09 pm

NoDakRube
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 2:41 pm

Loved Joe Mauer….Stupid Concussions.

freezeyface
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 3:03 pm

joe steroid mauer

KFEY93
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 2:05 pm

“Priority” = Make as much money on the last big time contract ill ever get. Also who the fuck is MLFootball

VikingPhilip
Reply to  KFEY93
18 January 2024 4:52 pm

As is most people’s priority including yours: to make money and as much as you can.

DE Viking
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 2:09 pm

More PR for the fans…..

freezeyface
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 3:03 pm

it will be delicious when it’s a team friendly deal, way below what he’s worth..

it will be disgusting when it’s not

NoDakRube
Reply to  freezeyface
18 January 2024 3:06 pm

What if it’s a team friendly deal for Atlanta?
Will that still be delicious?

freezeyface
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 3:09 pm

it would be extra delicious

bowbunch
bowbunch
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 3:19 pm

I hope Atlanta gives him 50 per year fully guaranteed for 3 years.

DE Viking
Reply to  bowbunch
18 January 2024 4:15 pm

That will likely be called “team friendly” since Dak’s cap it is $59 million.

DE Viking
18 January 2024 1:54 pm

Does Kirk shave his armpits?

https://www.outkick.com/kirk-cousins-armpit-shaving/

Edgecrusher71
Reply to  DE Viking
18 January 2024 1:59 pm

Who cares? I do always have. I basically feel I am wasting a lot of deodorant and it’s less effective.

DE Viking
Reply to  Edgecrusher71
18 January 2024 2:06 pm

I just thought it was hilarious that there was an actual story about this.

Edgecrusher71
Reply to  DE Viking
18 January 2024 2:14 pm

Good point

KFEY93
Reply to  DE Viking
18 January 2024 2:06 pm

Wouldnt surprise me. Also REALLY glad I bartended during this game. I havent watched a second of it, including this cringe video. No thank you.

freezeyface
Reply to  KFEY93
18 January 2024 3:06 pm

what an absolutely atrocious game this was

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  freezeyface
18 January 2024 3:10 pm

complete shit show!

NoDakRube
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 3:13 pm

Crap Fest!

freezeyface
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 3:13 pm

glad it was during new years eve and i was at friends so i didn’t have to devote any attention to it

HUNViking
Reply to  freezeyface
18 January 2024 4:12 pm

We came home from the party we attended on New Year’s Eve at halftime, checked the score… well, we just should have stayed at the party for a few more drinks.

DE Viking
Reply to  freezeyface
18 January 2024 4:16 pm

And I was at that mess.

freezeyface
Reply to  DE Viking
18 January 2024 4:23 pm

oh that’s right. that SUCKS

NoDakRube
Reply to  DE Viking
18 January 2024 3:05 pm

In addition to shaving is armpits,

Julie says he manscapes too.

DE Viking
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 4:17 pm

Well, she’s the boss.

NoDakRube
18 January 2024 1:49 pm

I know its not Tuesday but
Jay Gruden: Kirk Cousins was a better player than Robert Griffin III (msn.com)

Gruden must be a blind Ass-Hat. I mean RG III was MOBILE!

DE Viking
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 1:56 pm

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 2:02 pm

Gruden is being self serving here and it is about half assed truth.
Truth is it was actually Bill Belichek (yes) that got Cousins promoted over RGlll.

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 2:12 pm

This is gonna be good… do tell how that happened with BB… cause I don’t think your rememberizing correctly.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 2:23 pm

Story from a coach who was standing there
Shanahan got fired for playing Cousins over RGlll
Gruden bought in specifically teach RGlll to play from pocket – was failing as Shanahan said. But Gruden knew Snyder was the boss.
So before Patroits preseason game, teams have a joint practice.
Both teams coaches and Snyder are standing around. Snyder asks Belichek if he sees anything obviously wrong with the team
Belichek straight up answer – you have your QB’s ranked wrong.
shouldn’t be RGlll, Cousins, McCoy. It should be Cousins, McCoy and RG111.
And that’s how Cousins became the starter, MCoy the backup and bye bye to RGlll. Took Belichek in all his power at the time to get Snyder off the RGlll kick.

NoDakRube
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 2:34 pm

Wow, that is quite the story!

Like I said, If Bill takes the Atlanta job, my guess is Cousins goes there too.

@Stupid Belichek, doesn’t know a loser QB when he sees one@

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 2:38 pm

More Snyder. the absolute idiot and asshole, and was willing to bury the whole team rather than owning up to his mistake.

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 2:41 pm

Not exactly. Shanahan never played Cousins over RGIII. RGIII went to Shanahan’s house and told him he would no longer run the ball, but instead be a pocket passer from that point forward, and Shanahan laughed at him, and said, yeah, maybe in about 5 years. RGIII went to Dan Snyder, and complained that Shanahan was going to wreck his career, and Snyder got rid of Shanahan.

As to your Belichick story, that too is false. It was Tom Brady in an interview after a joint practice who was asked about RGIII and his reply to the press was, “I’d be watching #12 if I was you”.

Finally, it was Gruden and GM Scot McCloughan who went to Snyder and Allen and told them they didn’t think Griffin “had it” and were making a change at QB. This was after an interview where Griffin was asked if he thought he was a top 5 QB in the league and his response was “absolutely, and I’m definitely the best QB on this team”. That pushed Gruden and McCloughan over the edge, and the next day Gruden announced he was benching Griffin for the year, and named Cousins the starter for 2015. 6 days before the start of the season

NoDakRube
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 2:45 pm

Another fascinating story….

Which one of you two has the more accurate version of history? Was it Bill or Tom who ultimately told the Foreskins they were starting the wrong QB?

The world may never know.

DE Viking
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 2:46 pm

NoDakRube
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 2:48 pm

Then there is this from 2015 regarding Bill’s love of Cousins….

Bill Belichick really, really likes Kirk Cousins | For The Win (usatoday.com)

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 2:52 pm

All I know is I watched the Tom Brady presser when he made those comments. It was live, and boy were those comments buried by the press. Not one story was ever written about it.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 2:59 pm

then we’re going to have to disagree. I read the papers, listened to the sports junkies, and talked to a few coaches (golf buddies).
Shanahan did not want RG lll and told Snyder he was giving up way to much capital to get him. He believed he could get Cousins cheap and use picks to get more talent. Snyder wouldn’t listen and went ahead.
So with RGlll shanahan devised an offense for him and it went very well. then he hurt his knee- from all the running.
After that RG111 and his DAD went to Snyder and said RGlll was a pocket QB and they need to change to that.
RG111 then went to Shanahan and said of the change to pocket stuff.
Shanahan would later say when RGlll came to me ” I could tell he had already been to Dan and got his OK (orders).
From that, Shanahan tried some, but got feed up cause RGlll couldn’t do it – so he benched RQlll and started Cousins. And got fired for doing that.
Gruden was bought in specifically to train RGlll.
Now, I don’t recall the Brady interview, although I know he and Cousins are a bit tight.
But do know what I was told from coaches who were standing there. Maybe it was BS, or not.

NoDakRube
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 3:02 pm

Of course you both could be right regarding Tom’s statement and Bill’s statement. It doesn’t need to be an either or.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 3:09 pm

Completely agree. Either way, to your original post, Gruden had a lot of help.

bowbunch
bowbunch
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 3:21 pm

You and those coaches obviously are not as intune and informed as NLNVF.

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 3:44 pm

I agree that Shanahan didn’t want Griffin, for sure. The deal Snyder and Allen made to get him infuriated Shanahan.

Also, you are right that after the Redskins started 3-10 in 2013, Shanahan benched Griffin, stating he didn’t want him to further damage his knee in a lost season. Truth be told, Griffin played poorly all year, but Shanahan insisted it was only to protect Griffin from further injuries. So yep, I missed wide right on that. I had forgotten about it. I also may have missed wide right on the order of precedence on Griffin’s conversations with Snyder and Shanahan as you highlighted. You are also correct that Griffin’s father was involved.

Gruden was indeed brought in to fix Griffin and promised he would teach Griffin “how to make every throw in the book”. Gruden even bought the house across the street from Griffin so they could be close. But in the end Griffin just failed badly in executing Gruden’s offense.

As to Brady and Belichick which was the initial point of our conversation, I never heard anything about Belichick talking to Gruden, and really, I don’t think he had to. Gruden fully knew Griffin was dorking up almost every single play, and so did the locker room. Cousins was clearly a much better QB, so Gruden and McCloughan benched Griffin.

Belichick did praise Cousins play, before they played the Redskins in 2015 though, after Cousins had been named the starter however.

So I never heard anything about Belichick telling Gruden he would play Cousins over Griffin, but I DID hear Tom Brady say words to that effect.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 4:28 pm

Perhaps both are true

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 4:54 pm

Perhaps

NoDakRube
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 2:18 pm

I can’t wait to hear this either….do tell.

JRobert
JRobert
18 January 2024 1:46 pm

Some talk about Belichek earlier.
Heard a funny story about him (least I thought).
Seems Bill had talked with Kraft and got some direction to do something.
Bill comes back and tells Eric Mangini to do this.
Mangini questions about doing it
Bill tells Mangini – if you don’t want to do it, buy your own team!
Certain life lesson to this too.

JacksonVike
18 January 2024 12:48 pm

I missed out on the different styles of dealing with a workforce yesterday, read it all this morning.

We have levels in each department that determine pay grades, 1-4. This is mostly based off of performance, attendance and capability. At the time, a level 3 only made about $1.25 per hour less than a level 4, so many people would rather be a level 3 and not have the expectations of a level 4.

I was once asked how to increase productivity in our shop; I said fire 25% of the employees that have been a level 3 for more than 6 months. Management said that, that would cut into our workforce too much and would not be able to keep up with production. I said, the other 75% of level 3 employees would probably step up their production.

Shortly after this conversation with my manager, I was working with a friend, he’s a very hard worker. We stopped welding for a minute and he said, look at those guys, they’re making twice as much money as us. I said that they are level 4 welders just like us. He said, yeah but they do half the work.

NoDakRube
Reply to  JacksonVike
18 January 2024 1:08 pm

That would certainly have lit a fire under their collective asses.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  JacksonVike
18 January 2024 1:19 pm

Not sure I completely understand this – 1.25 less versus half as much in last thought.
Still there’s something in compensation called valence theory about motivation and pay.
Goes like this – employees thoughts, can I do the job, if I do the job will I be compensated. if I do it well will I be well compensated. (as I remember, been a while).
First question – is 1.25 enough of a difference for increase in work required for a 4 compared to a 3? If not, why would a person do it?

No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 12:23 pm

The Ravens have added Dalvin Cook to their 53-man roster with the intention of playing him Saturday against the Houston Texans.

NoDakRube
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 1:08 pm

Apparently he has more left in the tank than Gordon.

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 1:20 pm

Personally I think Dalvin has plenty left in the tank. I think the Ravens made a great decision adding him to their roster for their playoff run.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 1:23 pm

at this time of season, should have fresh legs. Don’t think he touched the ball all that much with Jets.

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 1:26 pm

Yeah, it was weird, they brought him in, and barely used him. Like the GM brought in a player the HC didn’t want or something. But of course, that never happens.

NoDakRube
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 1:29 pm

No, it was because he is washed…..

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 1:32 pm

Laughing… last year Cook was 6th in the league in rushing yards, averaged 4.4 yards per carry, and scored 8 rushing TD’s.

This year the Jets barely used him.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 1:36 pm

did we have a running play all year longer than 25 yards?

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 1:39 pm

No… or wait maybe. Dobbs may have done it.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 1:41 pm

Hoe about RB?

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 1:43 pm

Just checked, Chandler had a 31 yard run

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 1:47 pm

we had one all year – that speaks volumes.

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 1:50 pm

Yes, and I can remember several huge runs Dalvin had for the Vikings in 2022.

bowbunch
bowbunch
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 2:07 pm

Chandler also had a few that were called back.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  bowbunch
18 January 2024 2:09 pm

Since we all want a big time playoff team, we have to run the ball a lot better.

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 1:46 pm

OK, I never got to see him play this year. He’s about to play behind a good O-line and the best rushing team in the league. Lamar and Cook together in the backfield? Could be really good. Also Cook can catch the ball out of the backfield. I’m hoping he has a chance to play, and makes some plays.

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 2:16 pm

Me too. Hopefully get more than a couple plays.

NoDakRube
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 1:45 pm

I hope Cook has an awesome play off run and makes the Vikings look silly for letting him go…

By all accounts he is a class act.

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 1:49 pm

The Vikings kinda had to let him walk. They were getting their fiscal house in order. I am like you though, I think he’s a class act, and I want to see him win a Super Bowl.

KFEY93
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 2:08 pm

Us paying him what he wanted would have been stupid AF, dont get it twisted nodak. You rely too much on nostalgia for keeping players around. Makes 0 business sense.

NoDakRube
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 2:19 pm

Somebody downvoted me for hoping Cook has a great playoff run….

Stunned….Stunned I tell you.

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 2:48 pm

Yeah…. I get a lot of that too… grin. It’s a blog, and just consider the source.

Edgecrusher71
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 2:04 pm

I think some of it is desire. I think Cook is coasting the last few years.

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  Edgecrusher71
18 January 2024 2:15 pm

I think that shoulder injury hindered him for at least 3 years. Then in the offseason this year, he got it surgically repaired.

Edgecrusher71
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 2:36 pm

I am being a smart ass really, didn’t think it was a possibility.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  No longer New Vikings Fan
18 January 2024 2:42 pm

But he served a useful purpose and had football value.
Do you think DC’s fear Mattison.
Even last year, Cook took it to the house several time.
DC’s have to plan for that.

No longer New Vikings Fan
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 2:46 pm

Oh, he was definitely a threat… big time.

Can you imagine if he breaks a big run for a TD on Saturday????

kathy.clater.3
kathy.clater.3
18 January 2024 11:43 am

I get that teams want to get their staff in place as soon as possible to start on all the off season work, and that promotable coaches don’t want to miss opportunities, but I still HATE it that coaches for teams still playing get distracted with all these interviews. It’s not fair to the guys who risk their health and play their guts out on the field.

These are not just video chats. Common practice in the NFL is for candidates to prepare a plan for what they would do to improve the team they’re interviewing for. You don’t just throw that together in an hour. I’m literally an expert on interviewing, but even I would spend at least 40 hours preparing to interview for a job I really wanted (good luck trying to ask me any question I haven’t prepared for, lol).

@kmeinke
Ben Johnson has 2 new interviews on the books, with the Chargers and Seahawks on Saturday. Also speaking with the Commanders and Panthers on Friday, as previously reported

HUNViking
Reply to  kathy.clater.3
18 January 2024 12:21 pm

Agreed, Kathy. Exhibit A: Pat Shurmur, and how he conducted himself during the last NFCCG the Vikes managed to get to.

kathy.clater.3
kathy.clater.3
Reply to  HUNViking
18 January 2024 3:20 pm

They’re saying they take most of the time away from their families, which is probably at least somewhat true, but preparing for 4 interviews? No way does that not take at least some time away from preparing for the playoff game.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2024/01/18/detroit-lions-coordinators-balance-buccaneers-head-coach-interviews/72271606007/

NoDakRube
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 11:18 am

Look for Cheatachick to target Cousins in a win now push for the Falcons.

freezeyface
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 11:31 am

idk…

if he’s taking a team over i could see him wanting to draft a qb of the future….

will the falcons be the team to trade for the #1 overall with the bears?

bowbunch
bowbunch
Reply to  freezeyface
18 January 2024 11:33 am

Belichek isn’t drafting a QB in the first round again. He did it once in almost 30 years and it cost him his job.

NoDakRube
Reply to  bowbunch
18 January 2024 11:34 am

Yep…thats right. He doesn’t have the time or the desire to draft a QBOTF

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 11:45 am

Still a smart guy. Weak division with a team with a lot of young talent. Find a QB and can quickly win the division. Good start.

Edgecrusher71
Reply to  bowbunch
18 January 2024 11:54 am

Maybe he can convince someone to come out of retirement…

KFEY93
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 1:16 pm

Would love that move.

freezeyface
18 January 2024 9:14 am

all you nerds out there who know how to look stuff up…

any way someone can look up and tell me what our qb pressure rate was last year?

i feel like it was fairly low, am i wrong?

bowbunch
bowbunch
Reply to  freezeyface
18 January 2024 9:16 am

I think I heard one time that Kirk is the most pressured of all time if that is what you are asking.

freezeyface
Reply to  bowbunch
18 January 2024 9:18 am

no, i’m legit curious to what our defensive pressure rate was in comparison to the rest of the league…

the hunter talk below just got me thinking that maybe he isn’t worth the massive payday he will demand

bowbunch
bowbunch
Reply to  freezeyface
18 January 2024 9:27 am

Yeah, a snarky comment was easier than looking up what you asked. I got a ninja report I’m supposed to be working on.

Surly Viking
Admin
Reply to  freezeyface
18 January 2024 9:44 am

freezeyface
Reply to  Surly Viking
18 January 2024 9:52 am

nah

NoDakRube
Reply to  freezeyface
18 January 2024 10:01 am

qb pressure rate was last year?

I remember a stat showing our interior defensive line pressure rate was last in the league by a wide margin…like 8.8 percent of drop backs…the highest was the rams somewhere in the low 30s….

Again that was interior dline only…

Edgecrusher71
Reply to  NoDakRube
18 January 2024 10:44 am

I also remember things being said that he is more than that to the defense. That he will also do what’s asked of him in run situations and not play out of position and greedy. That was in the past though.

freezeyface
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 11:14 am

i appreciate you doing what i easily could have done but was super lazy…

so my theory in my head is that hunter isn’t worth the huge payday since he didn’t bolster a line that created a lot of pressure. he, himself, created pressure, sacks, tfl, fumbles, but i don’t know if any of those ultimately maked or breaked a game….

but my thinking is flawed as i see dallas is right next to us in poor defensive pressure and they have one of the best/most dynamic defensive playmakers in the NFL who would be worth every penny of a payday. So…my thinking is flawed

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  freezeyface
18 January 2024 11:42 am

Maybe QB “pressure” is a bit of a flawed stat. There’s pressure and then there’s pressure. If a QB is pressured but still completes a long pass down field does it matter?

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 12:36 pm

Good idea – tie it into results.

kathy.clater.3
kathy.clater.3
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 3:38 pm

Good point.

Wrenage
18 January 2024 9:09 am

This is an interesting song. It’s like if George Thorogood got a little bit thrashy-like, maybe?

Edgecrusher71
Reply to  Wrenage
18 January 2024 11:25 am

This is just rockin awesome! Good find!

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 9:00 am

Oh – big time tears in Big D – McCarthy back, DAK’s 60 Mil cap hit next year, and the big Packer loss. And there’s the brilliant DanQuinn. Ran with 2LB.s for just TWO plays all game and the Packers ran it down there throats.
Lot’s of crying.

Surly Viking
Admin
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 9:01 am

I really do not know what Dallas should do (other than continue to suck for my enjoyment)

Dak seems to be a big issue, but they are committing to him and expecting different results.

KFEY93
Reply to  Surly Viking
18 January 2024 9:08 am

Reminds me of another team

Surly Viking
Admin
Reply to  KFEY93
18 January 2024 9:42 am

It’s not Tuesday

KFEY93
Reply to  Surly Viking
18 January 2024 1:17 pm

Sorry!

PS: “D, you bitch!”

Wrenage
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 9:07 am

I honestly don’t know why they hired McCarthy in the first place. He was basically Jason Garett 2.0.

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  Wrenage
18 January 2024 9:11 am

But that’s exactly the kind of coach Jerry wants – he’s the real coach, rest are puppets.

Surly Viking
Admin
Reply to  JRobert
18 January 2024 9:43 am

freezeyface
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 9:10 am

i don’t think they would have many options for head coaches if they fired Mccarthy. who would want to have to deal with Jerry Jones? can you imagine BB dealing with that? NOPE

JRobert
JRobert
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 10:40 am

Not sure- BB is Parcells guy and Bill and Jerry had their problems. Don’t know if Jerry wants a real coach.

VikingPhilip
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 4:59 pm

My brother is a Cowboys fan and his biggest gripe is with Jerry Jones. He says they won’t win again until he out as owner.

Wrenage
18 January 2024 8:38 am

We hit For Your Eyes Only in the Bond On series…

Bond On: FOR YOUR EYES ONLY

Surly Viking
Admin
Reply to  Wrenage
18 January 2024 8:46 am

Lynn-Holly Johnson was pretty cute in that movie.

One of the cheesiest Roger Moore outings imo.

Wrenage
Reply to  Surly Viking
18 January 2024 8:51 am

Johnson came back nicely from her crash in Ice Castles!

JRobert
JRobert
18 January 2024 7:18 am

Tough crowd this morning about Hunter.
I sometimes get upset as it seems he sort of takes breaks out there. But when he wants to bring it, he can.
Not wanting to cut my nose off to spite my face, and given he’s the best player on our defense, I’m OK with letting him go, but I want some real talent to replace – not just hopeful maybe could be type.

FloridaSKOL
18 January 2024 6:28 am

Good morning, SKOL!

FTP!

Happy Thorsday!

Wrenage
18 January 2024 5:46 am

I’ve been over Hunter for a long time. He hasn’t really moved the needle for the team. He is hurt or pouting over contract issues regularly.

DE Viking
Reply to  Wrenage
18 January 2024 6:52 am

Correct.
Is he worth $20 million? I’d say yes.
But if you sign him, after a year he will complain again.
That’s what he does.

Wrenage
Reply to  DE Viking
18 January 2024 7:32 am

It is time for Hunter to move on to greener pastures where he can maybe help put a different team over the hump.

Surly Viking
Admin
Reply to  Wrenage
18 January 2024 7:05 am

I completely agree. If the Vikings sign him he will either be hurt or butthurt about his contract by 2025.
Let him walk.

Wrenage
Reply to  benjammin
18 January 2024 8:37 am

Yeah, on some level they need to field a team until they can build things back up. I think the team that hits the next version of relevant will look pretty different. The once-a-decade window, 2027-2029, is still achievable, but they have to start nailing the drafts.

Edgecrusher71
Reply to  Wrenage
18 January 2024 9:00 am

Yeah it’s odd right because he’s clearly an incredible athlete and great player but he just doesn’t bring that excitement level that seems to change a game like JA did or even Everson.

Wrenage
Reply to  Edgecrusher71
18 January 2024 9:07 am

It is hard to believe he has been with the Vikings for almost 10 years.

Surly Viking
Admin
18 January 2024 5:41 am

GM
FTP
SKOL

FIRST!

HUNViking
Reply to  Surly Viking
18 January 2024 8:09 am

First auto rec

About The Author

benjammin

benjammin

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