2023 Vikings Compensatory Draft Pick Prediction

Hello Skoloholics! I hate that we have to talk about the off-season already, but analysis, along with ice fishing, is how I keep my sanity during the off-season, so here we go. As you likely know, the Minnesota Vikings only have four draft picks at the moment, so compensatory picks will be extremely valuable this year. The Vikings are heading into the 2023 draft with multiple needs, especially on the defensive side of the ball. As of right now, the Vikings are $27 million over the cap as well, so don’t expect to see them do a ton in free agency. I’m not going to bore you with a long description of compensatory picks, as all of that information is in the links below.

Defensive Needs

The Vikings need to get younger on defense, and “restock the cupboards”, as they say. Much of their top defensive talent is aging, and while rookies like Evans and Asamoah, and other young guys like Cam Bynum have shown promise, most of our top talent is derived from guys who 30 years old or older. Patrick Peterson, Eric Kendricks, and Harrison Smith are all past 30, Za’Darius Smith is 30, and Danielle Hunter is currently 28 years old. The Vikings don’t have to replace everyone, but they need to get younger, especially with our core talent. You want to have a healthy mix of young talent and veteran experience in order to field a strong, balanced defensive unit. Right now, the Vikings don’t have a mix, they’re loaded with vets but low on young talent.

We’re low on young talent because of injuries to our two top picks in 2022, and also due to many questionable draft-day decisions by former GM, Rick Spielman. Hello, Kellen Mond? The Vikings need to add quality depth, as well as a starter or two, to next year’s defense if they want to be a competitive team again in 2023. You know that KOC expects nothing short of a Super Bowl run next year, so they’ll need to do a lot of work to the defense in order to get there.

Why Do We Only Have Four Draft Picks?

• Traded their second-round pick, along with their 2024 third and fourth-round picks for T.J. Hockenson and Detroit’s 2023 and 2024 fourth-round picks.
• Traded their 2023 fourth-round selection to move up in the 2022 draft to select CB Akayleb Evans.
• Traded their sixth-round pick for defensive lineman Ross Blacklock.
• Traded their original seventh-round pick back in 2021 for defensive ends. Stephen Weatherly

Compensatory Picks

As we said, the Vikings are not going to head into the draft with only four draft picks. They will likely receive compensatory picks this year. To estimate which picks they might receive, we look to Over The Cap. Their compensatory pick projector, the compensatory pick formula, and an “explainer” are all below.

Summary

Conklin signing with the Jets for $7 million/year certainly helped the Vikings’s compensatory pick position. As you can see on the formula page, they estimate that Conklin will bring in a pick, or picks, at the bottom of the 4th/5th round range. I’ve heard in recent weeks that the Vikings should receive two sixth-round compensatory picks, but I’ve not seen any data to back that up. Looking at these results, it looks more like the Vikings would receive a 5th-round compensatory pick.

In summary, I really don’t know, because the NFL doesn’t provide the formula they use to calculate compensatory picks. I’ve asked the elite minds on our back page discussion pages, and they were unable to provide the answer. If they can’t figure it out, then I doubt anyone can, but for now, we can speculate!