Let’s Talk About the Vikings Defense…….Again

Welcome, fellow Skoloholics! We had this talk not very long ago, didn’t we? Since then, things have actually gotten worse. Grab a coffee. I’m going to pull some raw stats from ESPN, and also some other stats from NFL.com. I will occasionally use PFF stats, which are locked behind a paywall, so I am unable to provide a link.

The Data

Sigh. Another pathetic outing by the Minnesota defense against the Lions yesterday gave the Vikings their third loss of the year. Now, I’m not one to over-react to a loss. I’m not doing that now. I’m just using the most recent game as evidence to illustrate a point: The Minnesota Vikings defense is really bad, and they seem to be getting worse as the season progresses. The Lions game was a bad game by our defense’s standards, and those standards are already lower than the deepest layer of frog excrement in the New Jersey swamp. How bad is the defense? Out of 32 teams, they are currently 32nd in total yards/game allowed and 32nd in passing yards/game allowed. The Vikings defense is 16th in rushing yards/game allowed and 25th in points allowed/game.

Don’t get too excited about the rushing yards stat (16th seems really good compared to 32nd, but it’s still only league-average), as teams just don’t rush against the Vikings very much. Teams have attempted 488 passes against the Vikings, 2nd-most in the NFL behind the Titans, but teams have only attempted 344 rushes against the Vikings (slightly below the league average). So, it isn’t that the Vikings rush defense is much better than their coverage, it’s just that teams pass A LOT against the Vikings so they don’t run as often. This results in fewer yards per game. Who could blame them? If it’s working, teams will continue to do it.

What’s The Trouble?

The Vikings defense is basically the worst defense in the NFL right now, and they need to do something to address that prior to the playoffs. You can win playoff games with a weak defense, but you can’t win playoff games with the worst defense in the NFL. In order to figure out which changes to make, we need to determine the root cause of the issues on defense. What is the main cause of our defense’s struggles? Is it coaching/scheme and Ed Donatell? Is it personnel? Something else?

PFF-Personnel

PFF is the perfect tool to evaluate the personnel quality because they grade each player individually based on each individual play. They score each play and assign an overall grade (1 to 100) to the player based on this data. When I look at the Vikings’ defense, I see four guys who grade above an 80, and not one player graded below a 50 (the Vikings don’t have a starter on either side of the ball who grade below a 50). This indicates that, at least according to one metric, personnel quality is sufficient. There are no positional groups with multiple glaring weaknesses, either. Our linebackers may be our weakest group, but Hicks and Kendricks are graded at 62.8 and 60.6, respectively. They’re not great, but not horrible. The coaching staff should be able to produce a mediocre defense, which would be a vast improvement over the current Vikings defense.

This data indicates to me that with the personnel currently on the roster, the defense SHOULD be performing better than they have so far this year. As fans, do we agree? For those of us who watch every game, we see the defense out there struggling, does it seem that our guys are just not good at playing football, or are the coaches just not using them properly? Has Kendricks really gotten THAT much worse in 9 months? I don’t think that the defense has a lack of talent (although improvements should always remain a goal) so that tells me that coaching, scheme, philosophy, is the defense’s biggest issue.

Solutions

The “bend but don’t break” philosophy is not working very well. It actually appeared to be viable in the first few weeks of the year, but not since the bye week in week 7. Since then, the defense has gotten much worse in nearly all categories. Teams are scoring far more points/game against the Vikings, and it’s worsening. Ed Donatell is having a rough year, there’s no doubt about that. That being said, it’s his first year, and the team is 10 and 3. I’ll say it again, the team is 10 and 3, so let’s be realistic here.

A 10-3 team who is set to lock up their division by mid-December is NOT going to make any major coaching changes just prior to the playoffs. There isn’t a snowball’s chance in the pit of Hades that Ed Donatell will be replaced by Pettine or anyone else this season. I know that there is a segment of the fan base who wants to see Donatell gone, and it’s fine to want that. I just don’t think it is a realistic option, which is why I left it off of here.

Can they bring Pettine into the mix at DC to call plays and/or have input on the overall scheme? It seems like an easy answer, as having a former head coach and solid defensive coordinator on staff is a rare luxury. Sometimes the easy answer IS the best answer. Maybe that’s the case here. I don’t know Ed Donatell or how open he would be to receiving input from someone else. At this point, he has to accept that what he is currently doing is NOT working. If the defense was trending better as the season progresses, it would be a different story. The fact of the matter is that the defense is getting worse.

Are there other options? Do you bring someone in from the outside as an assistant? Free ice cream Tuesday for all defensive players? I don’t know, I’m genuinely curious to hear what you all have to say.