Where’s Kirko? (in 2024)

Mick, Bowbunch, myself and a few others, were discussing the pending 2024 free agency of Kirko last offseason. Our thinking was that Kirk really wouldn’t have many viable options to his liking. And I still believe it to be true today. At least, not as many as people claim. Let’s look at what the realistic options are for Kirko in 2024.

I have put the “highly unlikely teams” and the “absolute no” teams at the bottom of this post.

I will first address the rumored Shanahan love for Kirko. Now that SF has made the Super Bowl with Purdy, there is no way Shanahan goes after Kirk. SF is currently $3 million OVER the 2024 cap. I don’t believe Shanahan is going to make significant roster changes to fit in Kirko’s salary after reaching the Super Bowl with Purdy. That would cause a revolt in the locker room.

I am using Over The Cap as my source for available cap space data. A cap number in parentheses is negative cap space.

My WAG as to the order of realistic teams that Kirko considers in 2024 are:
Washington, Atlanta, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and New England.
The options are slim overall for Kirko, IMO. I really think that the top 3 are his realistic options. But I’m an idiot, so who knows.

I think there are 2 other scenarios that might be just as likely as Kirko playing in 2024.

1. Kirko signs with nobody until after the season starts, in case some contending team’s QB goes down.
2. Kirko retires because he doesn’t get the offers he was hoping to get.

The Plausible Discussion:

Washington – 2024 Cap Space: $73.6 million
With Ben Johnson linked to DC, this seems like the most plausible place for Kirko to land, assuming both sides don’t have long term hate stored up between them. The Skins could draft a QB, let him sit behind Kirko where Kirko could bank some cash before his career ends.

Atlanta – 2024 Cap Space: $25.8 million
They have hired a DC for a head coach, and will have a new OC. The NFC south is up for grabs. This once was the hot take with Belichick’s name in the hopper. They have the cap space, a weak division, and some talent to make this possible.

Minnesota – 2024 Cap Space: $24.9 million
Seems like this is headed for a divorce. I don’t think Kirko is a Viking if a deal isn’t done by the league deadline of March 13, 2024.
The Vikings must eat $28.5 million if no deal is done by the deadline. Hard to imagine the Vikings eating that cap hit and re-signing him, unless Kirko has no other options and truly wants to retire a Viking on a bargain basement deal.

Pittsburgh – 2024 Cap Space: ($15.7 million)
The Steelers appear to be a QB away from “getting over the hump”. I call this the “Vikings of 2018” scenario. Another defensive head coach who is also currently coaching on the final year of his deal. My gut says this isn’t happening. They just made the playoffs with Mason Rudolph as the QB, and have currently have negative cap space.

New England – 2024 Cap Space: $66.1 million
The Patriots have the cash to fit Kirko’s high dollar history. New coach with a defensive background. The offense seems bare, with little to no high end talent. Not seeing Kirko liking this situation unless it’s the most money offered.

Tampa Bay – 2024 Space: $47.2 million
They have the cap space, and the division is wide open. Would Tampa really sign Kirko for $40 million, when they just had Baker Mayfield win a playoff game with an $8.5 million contract? My guess is Tampa would rather have Mayfield cheaper than bust the bank for Kirko.

Teams that are highly unlikely:

Denver – 2024 Cap Space: ($23.7 Million)
They have Payton as a head coach. As much as we hate him, he is a very good offensive coach. The offense might attract Kirko, but Denver first must move off Wilson to go after Kirko. Personally, I don’t see this as a viable option for Kirko because of the negative cap space.

Las Vegas – 2024 Cap Space: $36 Million
A new coach with Garoppolo under contract that used a rookie for a large part of the 2023 season. Other than having the cap space, this doesn’t seem very likely. I mean, it’s called Sin City and that probably sends chills down Kirko’s spine.

Indianapolis – 2024 Cap Space: $58.9 million
They just drafted Richardson and got 9 wins with Gardner Minshew. Doubt they have any interest.

Tennessee – 2024 Cap Space: $68.1 million
They just drafted Levis and have Cincinnatti’s OC Callahan. It’s possible the Titans look at Kirko, for a minute. Not sure they would push Levis to the bench for Kirko.

Carolina – 2024 Cap Space: $28.6 million
They just drafted Young and hired Canales, an OC from Tampa. This team doesn’t seem like it has any talent that Kirko would like, other than his bro crush with Thielen. I’d be shocked if Kirko goes to this dump of a franchise.

Chicago – 2024 Cap Space: $46.9 million
Another defensive guy for a head coach with Justin Fields and 2 top 10 picks. I don’t see the Bears as a serious contender for Kirko’s services. I think they go cheaper and younger.

Seattle – 2024 Cap Space: ($4.5 million)
Geno is under contract through 2025 at about $32 million per year. They do not have a head coach. If an offensive guy is hired, it’s possible they think about an upgrade, but probably for about a minute. They don’t have the cap space unless they dump Geno on some team for $32 million.

Teams that are an absolute NO. (19 teams):

Barring an untimely demise of their current QB, these teams are not even sniffing Kirko.

Arizona, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, Jacksonville, Kansas City, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Miami, New Orleans, NY Jets, NY Giants, Philadelphia, San Francisco.