Hello fellow Skoloholics! It has certainly been a fun season, the Vikings are sitting at 9-2, and on the cusp of clinching the division in a record-tying time frame. It hasn’t all been easy. As a matter of fact, the entire season has been filled with heart-attack inducing games. They say what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. If that’s true, then the hearts of Vikings fans should remain strong well into old age.
There’s no doubt that the wins have been a team effort. This new coaching staff and front office have brought an entirely different culture to the Vikings compared to the previous regime, and it seems to be effective. GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did not have a stellar draft, from initial appearances (it is WAY too early to render a verdict yet), but has done a solid job otherwise. The addition of T.J. Hockenson was huge, Za’Darius Smith has been a HUGE addition, and the hiring of head coach Kevin O’Connell looks to be a stroke of genius (if you disagree, go look at the charlie-foxtrot in Denver).
This team continues to fight no matter what the situation (with the exception of the Cowboys game, which was abysmal on all fronts, with the exception of Cook, who they chose not to use for some reason), and it has resulted in several improbable comeback wins. The team is playing smart football. They’re racking up fewer penalties, and are not making many mental errors on the field. The team has accumulated 57 penalties for 456 yards and 29 first downs on the season, compared to 75 penalties for 619 yards and only 15 first downs for their opponents.
To analyze the season, I’m using raw stats from PFR, which you can find here: 2022 Minnesota Vikings Rosters, Stats, Schedule, Team Draftees, Injury Reports | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Offense
The offense has been mostly consistent, with the exception of two abysmal performances in Philadelphia and against the Cowboys at home. Kirk Cousins, despite having one of his worst years statistically in many years, looks…..better? That’s illogical, but it’s true. Justin Jefferson’s potential legendary career is taking off, and Cousins is the man delivering the ball to him. Dalvin Cook is no longer the focal point of this offense, but remains a solid contributor when used (Cowboys game, ahem, coaches). The addition of Hockenson has bolstered this offense, and filled the one weak spot within the offense. The offensive line, for the first time since 2013, is a STRENGTH. Yes, you heard that correctly.
Kevin O’Connell is the primary play caller, with Wes Phillips as the offensive coordinator, and they have done a mostly good job of running the offense. They aren’t lighting up the stat sheet, and their opponents are ahead of them in most statistical categories. Prior to the bye, the offense averaged 23.2 points per game, and since the bye, they’ve averaged 24.6 points per game. Like I said earlier, they’ve been consistent.
Defense
Ed Donatell is the new defensive coordinator. Prior to Donatell, the defense was built and run by Mike Zimmer, who had built a very stout defense, but which began unravelling after that pivotal off-season between 2017 and 2018. Then GM Rick Spielman made some moves that spelled the beginning of the end to what he and Zimmer had built, and it ultimately cost them both their jobs (that is MY take on how it went down, feel free to disagree, but that’s how I see it).
Donatell started off fairly well, as the defense allowed fewer than 20 points per game through the first six weeks of the season, helping the team to a 5-1 record. They’ve allowed a ton of yards all season, but were able to prevent opponents from scoring a lot of points. Since the bye, it’s been a different story. Their PPG allowed has jumped to 27.8 points per game, a number that is skewed slightly by the meltdown against Dallas where they allowed 40. Without that game, they are still slightly below 25 points per game, which is still a massive increase from the sub-20 they were allowing pre-bye.
Dontatell’s defense often employs a “soft shell” scheme with a “bend but don’t break” approach. This can be maddening for fans to watch, me being one of those who find it frustrating. This can be effective when you don’t break, but lately, they’ve been breaking a lot. What is the cause of this?
Injuries
Injuries is one contributing factor. There have been some key injuries, especially in the secondary. The losses of Dantzler and then Evans proved to be huge, as Booth Jr. has not performed very well, which is unsurprising for a rookie. The loss of Dalvin Tomlinson on our D-line has also been a factor, as teams have had more success both rushing and passing in recent weeks.
Personnel
Another factor is personnel. The new regime inherited players with contracts that are not easy to shed (thanks Rick!), so they’ve had to make due. I’m guessing that if they could have started from scratch, this team would look much different, but that’s not reality.
Coaching/Approach
Another factor, in my opinion, is the scheme and approach. The Donatell approach relies a great deal on creating turnovers. Through the first 9 games, the team forced an average of 2 turnovers per game (they’ve forced zero in the last two games), and forced 4 in that crazy game against Buffalo, which was one of the main reasons they escaped Buffalo with a W. If they can continue to force turnovers, they should continue to have success. However, when it comes to the playoffs where you’re facing top teams, turnovers are not easy to come by. I’m concerned about our defense in the playoffs this year.
Options
Hey, I’m elated that the Vikings are 9-2 and are on their way to the playoffs. I’ve always said that you just have to get hot at the right time and hit the playoffs on a mean streak, and you just never know what can happen. Look at the Giants teams of the 2007 and 2011 seasons, and to a lesser extent, last year’s Rams team. However, I’m all for making improvements where needed, and our defense is obviously in need of improvement. I’m not advocating for any of the below changes (I’m also not not advocating for them), but am putting this out there for the sake of discussion.
Personnel
I think we’re going to see many new faces next year, as the team continues to shed the horrendous contracts with which Spielman burdened this team. Personnel changes will make a massive difference on the team, especially the defense. Long-time Viking greats may be on different teams next year. Can Donatell field a strong (at least above average) defense with a new slate of players?
Coach
Another option for the team is to look for a defensive coordinator to replace Donatell. In my fantasy world, they would bring Mike Zimmer back as defensive coordinator, but there isn’t a snowball’s chance in the pit of hades of that occurring. If they do look elsewhere, who would you like to see?
My problem is tempering expectations. When I heard they were switching schemes I told myself they will not be good this year. Yet once the games start I can’t help but expect them to play better. I have to force myself to remember they literally switched schemes for the first time in forever this offseason, and there are several players who are either making the transition learning new responsibilities/techniques or are unfortunately square pegs getting crammed into round holes. (TWSS). When initially considering the 3-4, I was hoping it would be more like the Blitzburg aggressive 3-4 Ds, forcing turnorvers, sacks, and mistakes. The shell concept basically waits for the opposing O to screw up. It works, but usually only after the O has driven significantly down the field. Less successful against truly good/efficient/talented offenses, especially teams that don’t make mistakes (Philly). So expectations must be tempered with the understanding the other O’s will get lots of yardage (i.e. we’re 32d in yards allowed) but hopefully we’ll tighten up prior to them scoring. The problem has been the tightening up isn’t occurring as much as we’d like, and this is where the square pegs/round holes/dudes learning new things come in. I expect the D to be significantly better next year. For this year all we can do is really hope they are just good enough, and maybe get lucky here and there (see Buffalo goal line) and occasionally make just enough plays on D to get the W (see NE).
My question to the defense is how long are we going to stick to the 3-4? All season, we’ve seen teams run all over it along with Za’Darius and Hunter drop back into coverage? Za’Darius and Hunter should be pressuring every single play trying to get to the QB. Let them put their hands in the dirt and reek havoc. Brian Asamoah could fill in at LB who some fans are already calling to play instead of Hicks. I understand that injuries have been huge, obviously. But I feel like pressure to the QB has been nonexistent, even when we have the pieces to let them get to work and cause issues for opposing QB’s.
Rushing defense is allowing 4.3 YPC, which is the same as what we average on the ground. Not a bad average. Our true defensive liability is in pass coverage, IMO.
Pressures is an overrated stat? Seems like one of those metrics that gets guys paid but doesn’t have a significant impact on the game.
Do we have to?
It gives me sad feelings.
They’ll probably fire Dumbatell after the defense gives up 27 yards on 4th and 26 again with under a minute left in a 3 point game of the divisional round of the playoffs.
To be fair, I was referencing when he was DC of the packers and McFlab hit Freddie Mitchell on said 4th down and they win the game
I understand the shell concept and like you said it can be frustrating to watch as a fan but part of its potential success in the passing game is getting consistent pressure when rushing 4 defenders. Outside of Z no one else is creating consistent pressure and Hunter looks like a 4-3 edge playing in a 3-4 scheme.
Hunter can’t realistically be traded or cut until 2024 due to cap hit and dead money (thanks moran Rick).
The other thing is Donatelli is blitzing at about 16% of the time which near the league low, showing pre-snap pressure and increased blitzing should increase pressure on opposing QBs.
tl;dr play better
I agree, but the “experts” don’t. According to them, Hunter is one of the highest graded players in the league.
Odd, but I still wonder if it’s more personnel, more coaching, or something else. It’s odd. Losing Tomlinson really hurt, and losing Dantz and Evans hurt, too. I don’t know, but it’s frustrating as hell to watch. Once they’re behind & the game is almost over, they’ll finally blitz, and what do you know, they can manage a stop or two. We need to force more than 2 punts per game.
Good point about the blitzing, though. We have Smith and Hunter, he should be blitzing more than he is with those two tools at his disposal, IMO.
“shell”
Nice video
Stupid greedy NFL.
Damnet
IMO Donatell isn’t very good as coordinator and we have succeeded in spite of him, not because of him. Don’t like his scheme much at all. 3rd and 3? Let’s play off 10 yds and allow them an easy throw for 1st down. End of game with .37 left on the clock? Plenty of time to get a field goal and even try for a TD. Hope our players can get a TO is a bad strategy IMO.
I agree with this, but am curious as to whether it’s all on scheme/coaching, or somewhat due to personnel. It’s really hard to say, but the scheme/approach, as you point out, seems to be lacking.
I do not wanna talk about the defense.
It’s not a pleasant subject.
Zero chance Donatell is canned at any point this season or even into next season.
Good insights here though
I agree. I really wonder how they’ll perform after another year of ridding this team of Rick’s mistakes. He’s signed some horrendous contracts.
@maybe he’ll get a head coaching opportunity and leave?@